relevance – An Aura of Fleeting Thoughts

Even as I muster enough courage to share with you; as I see the things- as they unfold- by the time I complete this article, there will be more hundreds of positive cases across the world- most of these people will survive and few of them will not be able to make it through it! This senseless loss of lives, coupled with an economic crisis unlike ever before- is in a way preparing humanity for something, that we have never been ready for and in all probability, every few years these instances may come back haunting with different scales and intensities as the world tries to re-adjust to a new order- An economic and geo-political order! This quick piece is to try and imagine how the next few months will unfold and possibly provide an anchor hold so that we know which way to steer the ship of our lives as we begin to move!– So let’s go!

By the time I am writing this article, China from where all this began, is already more or less back to normal- which implies that production lines are buzzing, people are working and it is a normal day in the nation! Well, I don’t have anything personal against them (apart from the tense diplomatic connect that India and China have always had), but being an Indian we need to take care and watch our neighbors! This pandemic is a classic case wherein a neighbor decided to do “pest” control which has gone horribly wrong and who these “pests” are; perhaps only time will tell- or may be the world may never know! So as the instance moved ahead- the global community saw the initial stages as an internal matter of China and felt relaxed –To an extent that even WHO took time to go through the processes of definition – whether it should be an epidemic or a pandemic and by the time all these great leaders and wise people with all the cutting edge resources at their disposal realized what was unfolding- it was too late and eventually every member state of the UN finally has been hit by this pandemic! 194 nations have confirmed cases on their territories! This scale has never been the case earlier ever in recorded human history! This brings us to the next stage- The Lock Down

The concept of lock down is not new, during wars this is the first step that every nation will initiate so that all available national resources of a nation are used for the defence or for attacking the other nation as the case may be! Makes sense- but with this pandemic – this decision- kept getting delayed- we may never know why!- and even as people were aware – to a reasonable extent that the virus was very aggressive and contagious with a greater affinity to the older or medically compromised population– nothing was done to flag it off- just imagine- with the first cases coming to light somewhere as early as December- even until March second week- international flights were operating! I mean which world leading organisation in the right frame of mind would not have instructed the IATA and ICAO to ground all airlines worldwide in February 2020 itself? Why drag it to such a point. To add to this- This initial delay also cascaded into allowing communities within nations to roam around their land- with no concern and it was these two basic acts of neglect and disregard that have brought the world order to the stage where we are today! The lock downs also as matter of scientific validation are effective only when they are done with some reason- like cases being reported from an area may be a borough, town or a city- in those cases lock down makes sense- but when you have not been able to manage a planned approach- panic sets in (even if you are a government) and you will take irrational steps which translate into nation wide lock downs! These in turn end up doing more damage economically – which far outweigh what the Virus could have done even in a worst case scenario! Especially when the Virus has a mortality rate less then 3%! Stage is set for the next step- The Meltdown!

Even before the pandemic set in the world all across- was jittery with massive trade wars compromising and threatening billions of dollars in the global market, with workers being laid off on an ongoing basis in developing worlds and with this getting more and more unpredictable , it was perhaps time that the world was racing ahead towards an economic re-boot! The whole promise of digital economy, again a core element of the global narrative (don’t forget digital money is no real money- it is just an electronic interface which is showing you a number which is being honored as long as the state is allows it!)and its aggressive push was always looking out for a big and bad excuse and this instance happens to be a perfect alibi! Confused- well, let me keep it simple- right now- if all citizens of any nation were to Q up and decide to withdraw all their money at one go , same time- any and every nation will simply fail as it will never have those many paper bills to provide everyone with what is being withdrawn! It is as simple and complicated as this! So what we can now expect in the days and months ahead? well read on…

The Meltdown stage will see many rapid developments, based on the laws of each nation- one common thread that you will eventually see coming out after this carnage will be that every sector (any sector for that matter) will be left with lesser then 5 or maximum 10 global players for those sectors. These will be the ones’ who will decide how they will shape their products and services from their respective zones and align them to the new ways that already have been planned by respective governments- most of them will wear a cloak of opaque transparency- you will be able to see only if you know what to look for! These business arrangements will then be the foundational step of humankind as a global community starts to play role to the larger conformity bias of the new developed and evolving societal order and those who will be found to be outliers will either be ejected or eliminated and that’s for sure- the people running these systems will want to run the way they have planned it and irrespective of the government’s will have and have always had the power to over-ride and manipulate governments the world over!These large scale behavioral changes brought about in human societies across will tend to shift focus of people from being the careless consumers that we have been for some time now to more mindful and responsible consumers- so as the dip in consumption happens- we will move into a space of rising costs of services and products- to meet custom needs and infrequent purchases! How this gets played out will depend on the type of government that each nation has-more importantly in the garb of the pandemic- almost all nations have executed their own acts which in turn have given immense powers to the government of the day and power- is a double edged sword! During this stage of Meltdown- Human behavior will see alterations like never before- remember these lockdowns have been closer to 21 days and 21 days is the magic number to alter human habits- people will end up being more anxious- stress prone- resilient- calmer- aggressive- confident- depressed- all of these and many more such hues will emerge depending on how an individual is placed within a start of the society and what is the intrinsic strength that one has to deal with these global showdowns! Towards the end of the meltdown- when the conqueror and the vanquished become clear on the horizon- the remnants of this episode will begin to piece together the path ahead and it will be the proverbial Rising on the Phoenix that will follow next…

The proverbial rising of the Phoenix will be slow, planned and designed to ensure that only those who qualify to be within the scheme of the things will be held on to- others who have not been able to conform to certain standards will be left out to defend for themselves ( In this will lie the seeds of the next great global crisis!). In the following months, people will want to naturally break free and travel (because that will be the natural psychological trigger – which will help people again believe that they gain have regained control- there will be surging rush to travel (but all these travels will be majorly restricted to domestic arenas) and even as airlines companies merge and continue to be on borrowed time- as it were- the initial three- six months will see this- the really challenge will start after that as few sectors will be buyout- globally- which will be finance, travel, wellness, healing, spiritual tourism,tourism and hospitality- leaving these aside practically everything to do around the consumer side- whether it is the FMCG or the FMCD or even the Automobile sectors will all see a downward spiral with an apparent no end to their crisis- A criss which has on a way of their own making! Workers will have to make a choice to either seek monetary security and give up on aspirational attributes and agree to live life in a prescribed manner or create affluence by being a disruptor and challenge the establishment on an ongoing basis. Apart from this self-employed and the business class will have toe sure they remain agile and nimble for overcoming all and any challenges that may come up (which will indeed) with unpredictable speed and timing– this will be vital as businesses will be then necessitated to comply to fall and align with specific groups and sub-groups of the new business order (which will be sold to them as the the concept of “ease of business”) Altered behaviors will create a further rift between the affluent elements and class of the society and the deprived and the so- called middle income group will have to take call to either move upwards or decide to stay low! The whole world will seemingly move to a two class society based on economic affluence! Compound this with growing digitisation through digital currency and digital surveillance (which will be told is necessary because of what has happened) will be the final nail in the coffin of individual liberties world-wide and whether the governments of the day say it or not- Big Brother will always be watching you! I won’t dig deeper into this aspect because it will take us to another topic – which we will discuss some other day or other time!

I will cut my thoughts here for now, but the key takeaways, are somewhere mentioned above and hidden away in plain sight for you to think further and reflect upon; based on who you are what is that you want to alter, how and why and ensure that you will be able to stay relevant for the times ahead! This pandemic was the excuse that the member states were waiting for a re-boot- a re-boot to set new rules of engagements with each other and flex muscles at that level. Needless to say, we will be impacted at the levels where we are and we will need to choose how we flex and make the most of the emerging stations without breaking or exhausting ourselves- intellectually, emotionally and physically!

Given the limitations of a blog; I will leave you here with these thoughts for now, grab a drink and see how you lived through the Lockdown- how the Meltdown is impacting you and How you are preparing for the phase when the Phoenix begins to rise over your horizon and what you will do about it to ensure you ride the right wave and stay afloat for long times to come and prepare yourself for the next crisis- which at this very moment is being developed! More on that some other time!

Ciao for now, Stay at Home, Stay Safe, Always keep Social Distancing and importantly stay wise and don’t get killed by dumbness! Will catch up soon with another piece!

Hello there, yes we are at war- with something that we can’t even see with our naked eyes! Well call it rule of nature or whatever you may like to- The fact always has been that wars and enemies emerge from unseen blind quarters within or outside! Today, I want you to think around what is developing behind the smoke screen of the pandemic- sure enough- the pandemic is real people have risked themselves and have become history- but there is more in store and for what is in store- not everyone needs to die necessarily- but the changes over the horizon will be no less then having a rebirth! This piece is about what the unseen and unavoidable fall out of this chaos will be for the next 12 months at least- beyond that- well let your wisdom guide you!

So wherever you are on the world map right now- If you have been one of those lucky one’s to get a reprieve from travelling to work and are soaking in the windfall time with your family or pursuing your hobby or plain speak- something that you like to do (rarely that is possible when you are at work!); be wise and stay cautious! If you have not got that call from your boss, that client of your’s and if you did not get a chance to wear that mask and do a quick trip to your office like a super-hero to save the day- well you know what chances are your Work From Home (WFH) will eventually plateau out to a Always At Home (AAH) scenario pretty earlier then you would have thought! Yes! you read it right- you don’t trust me- well, no problem- drop me a mail around September 2020, then we will have a chat! Now don’t get scared- here’s what you need to understand and take charge of to ensure you stay relevant through your absence!

People tend to forget the age old maxim- “Your absence must be just enough so that your value (if any at all) must be realized- but your absence must be not so long that people learn to live without you and move ahead!” This is the space where the risky WFH is treading on- We live in times where interpersonal skills among people in work environments are already substantially screwed and messed up- if there is anything important that we talk with co-workers even as we work- it is about the third person- whether that third person in the context and content is a team member, your client or the classical corporate bitching session that has no end! I read somewhere- what people have started to realize is how shallow the entire corporate experience has been- once everyone has been packed to their homes-for their WFH- the realization has dawned that- the only thing that always mattered was the responses to the mails, the quick chats of under 3 minutes with clients and action planning and getting work done for that day! Everything else suddenly has started to seem to unwise- dumb and completely useless! Well, realization of all this is good for you as a worker- the problem here is even your employers now have started to realise- how dumb they have been to get sold to your personal charisma- your high value degrees and much hyped and eternally eroding experience(of course- there are a few exceptions- and this is not about them!)

Yes, folks, even as you think you have been smart to convince your employer for a WFH waiver and you are possibly working as you binge on a some movies and web series even as you work! Employers world wide right now are unleashing the complete available power of AI (Artificial Intelligence) – something that you, would have contributed to- knowingly and unknowingly (knowingly if you have bee a software and systems developer and unknowingly- if you have left a great digital imprint of your existence on the planet to provide ample data points to study behavioral and capability patterns)- and this is what can possibly make you technically redundant!

Well, there is nothing wrong and right about this – It is about knowing what we have done to ourselves as human beings!– First, we built capabilities through enveloping our intelligence- next we misuse and abuse them to sub-serve ourselves and for those who we work for – whether employers or society and finally we play dumb and under the garb of automation end up making ourselves redundant! What is happening to the service sector today- is what had happened to the manufacturing sector thirty years ago with the advent of robotics and CNC (Computer and Numerically Controlled) programmable machinery, and as humans guess what- We failed to remember what we should have learnt from that instance- We should have could have set a limit to our levels of procrastination and laziness which have in a way led to the need and urge to seek more and more automation! Automation from an innovator’s point was always designed to make things easier for difficult situations- now that has been extended to manage dumb and repetitive tasks (that’s what I asked in a previous article- Does your designation define your incompetence!)

So what next, well as humans we can do only one thing what we are best suited to do- turn the circumstances to our advantage- understand and differentiate from what is meaningful and what is meaningless!– I will tell you what- here’s simple test- If what you can do- can be done by anyone else- Well then you are in trouble and you need to course correct your life and skill sets now- to stay relevant and stay alive! another step you can think around this is – Can anyone do what I do the Way I do It- here if you have answered NO- Well, then Congratulations- No matter how much automated the world becomes- You are and will always remain to be one of those human beings who have been and continue to be “Human” in the essence of the word by simply being “Who You Are” and that is how it is supposed to be and this is what each one of us should aspire for ourselves to be! Always remember, every time that stepped back and gave away the control to technology- technology has come back seeking more and more and there will be really no end to it- The only way to subvert this, is to ensure we are smart enough to limit and know what we should, can and need to automate and to what extent!

I leave you at this point- Take a pause and reflect- What is the essence of being an human mean to You and more importantly Being You – whats is that helps and harms you! Importantly also Know what is the relationship that you share with automation- Who is the Master and who is the Slave and what are you going to do about it- so that in times to come that equilibrium stays the way You want it to be and that’s how it should be!

Stay wise, have an awakened weekend ahead and stay who You are and stay Relevant!